The Secret Behind Norway's Olympic Dominance

If you’re anything like us, today feels a little bittersweet, with the Milano-Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics finishing yesterday. There's nothing quite like the thrill of the Games: the competition between the very best, those moments of drama, raw emotion, unexpected upsets, and pure awe-inspiring performances that remind us what human limits (and breaking them) really look like. 

The Winter Games have that special magic of pulling you into sports you might otherwise skip. I found figure skating mesmerizing, with its artistry and precision; the high-octane chaos of snowboard cross (huge congrats to Team GB on that gold!) had me on the edge of my snowy seat; and those big air competitors flipping through the sky like it was nothing. Unreal. Curling's always got that slow-burn intensity and strategy that hooks you in, and it was fantastic to see SkiMo (Ski Mountaineering) make its debut; those athletes charging up mountains and bombing down them are superhuman, with transitions that make triathletes seem amateur!

Norway dominated the medal table with 18 gold medals, 12 silver, and 11 bronze for a staggering 41 total medals, the most by any nation and a new record for the highest number of golds ever won at a single Winter Games. This remarkable haul propelled Norway to the top spot ahead of the United States (12 gold, 12 silver, 9 bronze; 33 total) and the Netherlands (10 gold, 7 silver, 3 bronze; 20 total), while cross-country skiing superstar Johannes Høsflot Klæbo made history by sweeping gold in all six of his events for an unprecedented personal tally of six golds at one Games.

What makes Norway's achievement truly extraordinary is its population of approximately 5.65 million people; with 41 medals, the country achieved roughly 0.73 medals per 100,000 inhabitants—a per-capita dominance that dwarfs larger nations and underscores Norway's unparalleled winter sports culture, talent development, and sheer excellence in disciplines like cross-country skiing and biathlon. 

For comparison, the next two strongest per-capita performers were Switzerland (23 total medals, roughly 0.26 medals per 100,000 people) and Austria (18 medals, roughly 0.20 medals per 100,000 people). The United States, with its massive population of around 349 million, managed about 0.009 medals per 100,000 people despite a strong 33-medal haul, highlighting how Norway's success stands out even more when adjusted for population size. This triumph cements Norway's status as the undisputed powerhouse of the Winter Olympics.

So to make up for the loss of the Olympics in our Lives today, I thought I’d dive into the data to see if Norway's activity patterns are different - and to try to tie the data to a few theories that could explain Norway's success.

When we analyzed activity patterns across European countries, we expected regional variations. What we discovered was striking: Norwegians don't just exercise more, they exercise fundamentally differently. The patterns reveal a distinct approach that extends from casual exercisers to elite athletes, suggesting something deeply embedded in Norwegian culture.

The Big Picture: Volume, Modality, and Intensity

We compared Norwegian users to those from the top five European countries (United Kingdom, Germany, France, Austria, and Italy) across three dimensions: how much they exercise, what activities they choose, and how intensely they train.

• Volume tells the first part of the story: Norwegians average 512 minutes of activity per month, compared to 368 minutes for others—an 39% difference. They come out as the second most active nation, after Italy, whose activity is powered by cycling. This advantage isn't just at the top end. Even the 25th percentile Norwegian user is more active than the median user in other countries. This suggests a widespread cultural pattern where physical activity is more integrated into daily life.
• Modality reveals the most distinctive aspect - Norwegians spend 183 minutes per month on walking and hiking combined, compared to 112 minutes for others—a 64% increase. But the real standout is cross-country skiing: Norwegians average 29 minutes per month, while others average less than 1 minute. That's over 20 times more.

While other countries rely heavily on indoor activities like elliptical machines or stationary bikes, Norwegians show a strong preference for outdoor, nature-based activities. Hiking appears in Norway's top five activities, while it's largely absent from other countries' lists.

• Intensity patterns add another layer. Norwegians spend 13.9% of their time in low-intensity zones (recovery and aerobic) compared to 9.0% for others, while spending 62.6% in high-intensity zones compared to 72.7% for others. This suggests that, even at the population level, Norwegians take a more sustainable, endurance-focused approach

• Norwegians seem to enjoy a wider diversity of exercise types. Norway stands out with the highest mean diversity at 3.39 activity types per user and substantial variability (CV 87.8%). The UK exhibits the lowest mean diversity (1.53 activity types). Italy and Germany display diversity of 3.08 and 2.96 activity types, respectively, with moderate variability (CV of 81.7% and 75.8%). France sits in the middle with 2.30 types and a CV of 87.7%. This greater breadth in Norway aligns closely with its grassroots training philosophy, which emphasizes multi-sport participation, delayed specialization, and prioritizing fun and enjoyment well into adolescence—principles echoed in David Epstein's book Range, where generalists who sample widely often outperform early specialists in the long run.

At 15, Klæbo came 101st in the Norwegian National Junior Championships sprint. At 16, he placed 76th in distance and 58th in the sprint [1]. In any other country or performance culture, a young skier with those results would likely have been written off and discouraged to continue. That’s not the sports performance culture Norway is built on. Klæbo’s grandfather and primary coach urged him to focus extensively on technique and agility to close the gap to his more developed competitors. That patience and belief in a late bloomer’s potential has likely made Klæbo into what many consider the most technically skilled cross-country skier of all time.

Digging Deeper: What Happens When We Look at the Most Active?

The population-level differences were clear, but we wanted to understand whether these patterns held across different activity levels. What we discovered was surprising: the intensity profile actually reverses for the most active Norwegians.

When we segmented users by activity level, from the least active (bottom 25%) to the most active (top 10%), we found that low-activity Norwegians show the strongest preference for low-to-moderate-intensity training. In the "Very Low" activity segment, Norwegians spend 12.5% of their time in low-intensity zones compared to just 4.7% for others, while spending 58.6% in high-intensity zones compared to 80.1% for others. This suggests that even casual Norwegian exercisers engage in more sustainable, endurance-focused activities.

But here's where it gets interesting: as we move up the activity spectrum, the pattern shifts. For the top 10% most active users, Norwegians actually train at higher average heart rates than their counterparts in other countries. However, they still maintain a key difference: they spend significantly more time in the tempo and threshold zones (Zones 3 and 4) while consistently avoiding the maximum-intensity zone (Zone 5). This is the “Norwegian Threshold” model playing out in the data.

The top 10% of Norwegian users spend 28.9% of their time in Zone 3 (tempo), compared to 22.8% for others, and 38.0% in Zone 4 (threshold), compared to 33.8% for others. Meanwhile, they spend only 21.0% in Zone 5 (VO2 max) compared to 28.2% for others. This aligns with the theory of accumulating activity time at, or slightly below, Lactate threshold because you can do much more work at this intensity than at slightly higher intensities.

The Segmentation Story: Why This Matters

I think this tells us something important: it's not that Norwegians prefer easier workouts. Instead, the data suggests a different approach to the exercise. Low-activity individuals tend to focus on sustainable activities within a generally more active, outdoor lifestyle, while high-activity individuals incorporate greater intensity while remaining sustainable.

The modality differences also persist across segments. Even in the "Very Low" activity segment, Norwegians show massive differences in hiking and cross-country skiing - although we could have probably guessed that one! This isn't about elite athletes, it's about how even the least active Norwegians choose to move their bodies. When a Norwegian decides to be active, they're more likely to head outdoors for a hike or ski than to step onto a treadmill.

This pattern suggests that outdoor, nature-based activities aren't just recreational choices; they're the default. The infrastructure, culture, and geography of Norway make these activities more accessible and normalized. Cross-country skiing isn't a niche sport; it's a way of life.

What This Means Beyond the Numbers

These findings point to something deeper than exercise preferences. They suggest a fundamentally different relationship with physical activity embedded in Norwegian culture. The "friluftsliv" concept, roughly translated as "open-air living," isn't just a marketing slogan; it's reflected in the data. Norwegians don't just exercise more; they exercise in ways that connect them to nature, that can be sustained long-term, and that integrate movement into daily life rather than compartmentalizing it as "workouts."

Perhaps most importantly, these differences aren't limited to the most active individuals. They're visible across the entire distribution, from the 25th percentile to the 95th percentile. This suggests that the Norwegian approach isn't about having better athletes—it's about fostering a culture where physical activity is more accessible, normalized, and integrated into daily life.

Limitations

We are not shy about the limitations in this work; there are many. We analysed a sample of over 10,000 users across Europe. And while we had a large sample of users from some countries, such as the UK (4,400), we had only 135 from Norway. The heart rate zone analysis is interesting, but as we have written about before, there are many reasons not to trust this data. Automated modality detection is also improving over time, but it varies across devices. And of course, we are in no way making the argument that any of these findings is responsible for Norway's Olympic success; that would be causation. We are just pointing out that Norwegian behavior differs from that of some of their neighbours, and we can all decide what we want to learn from this.

The Takeaway

When we set out to understand how Norwegians exercise differently, we expected regional variations. But the picture of a culture that approaches physical activity fundamentally differently emerged, not just in volume, but also in modality, intensity distribution, and training philosophy.

The data tells a clear story: Norwegians have found a way to make physical activity more sustainable, more enjoyable, and more effective. And perhaps most importantly, they've made it accessible to everyone, not just the most dedicated athletes. That's a lesson worth learning.

References