When New Year's Resolutions Meet Reality

Every year, as the clock strikes midnight on December 31, millions of us around the world make the same quiet promise: this year, I'll sleep more. It's not as flashy as gym memberships or dry January, but improving sleep ranks among the top resolutions and is likely one of the most significant we can make to improve our health. Driven by holiday exhaustion, a desire for better health, and that fresh-start feeling only a new calendar can bring. In a sea of anecdotal "I tried and failed" stories, being Terra Research, we wanted hard evidence. 

So we analysed Q1 2025 sleep-tracking data from 11,298 unique users, contributing 559,468 filtered main sleep nights (after excluding naps and extreme durations). The results tell a compelling, very human story: yes, there really is a New Year's sleep resolution effect. People try harder in January. But for most, the effort is short-lived, modest in scale, and quickly overtaken by old habits.

The data reveals a subtle but detectable January surge. Average total sleep time edged higher right at the start of the year, weekends became prime recovery opportunities, and tracker usage exploded from January 2 onward—classic signs of resolution fervour. Yet dig deeper, and the limitations emerge: longer time in bed often came with worse sleep latency (more tossing and turning), gains averaged mere minutes, and individual improvements typically lasted days, not weeks. By February, metrics normalised, as most of us returned to baseline!

This isn't just population noise; individual-level patterns reinforce the narrative. Many users kicked off genuine attempts on January 2 (that’s the sleep data from the night of January 1st), only to see momentum evaporate rapidly. The story isn't one of total failure, but of how hard sustainable change truly is, even for something as essential as sleep.

Monthly Total Sleep Time and Sleep Latency 

January clocks in at around 7.37 hours of sleep on average, about 5 minutes more than the 7.32 hours seen in both February and March. That difference, while tiny in daily life, is highly statistically significant across thousands of users. It's the kind of bump you'd expect from widespread resolution attempts: people committing to earlier bedtimes or longer lie-ins after holiday disruptions. But the accompanying rise in sleep latency tells a cautionary tale. 

Taking over 26 minutes on average to fall asleep (versus 23–24 minutes later) suggests forced schedule changes without proper wind-down routines. Many were in bed longer... but not sleeping better, annoying!

Individual-Level Significance of January 2 Periods

Focusing on users who started an above-baseline streak precisely on January 2 (the ultimate "fresh start" date), we find something remarkable: for 60%, that period was significantly different from their norm across the quarter. Some sustained it longer, others achieved bigger gains, and a dedicated subset did both. 

This isn't an aggregate illusion; it's personal. These individuals genuinely deviated from their usual patterns right when cultural cues screamed "change now." Even under stricter criteria (90th percentile), nearly 40% still stood out. Magnitude drove more differences than duration, hinting that people often aimed for bigger leaps rather than steady consistency. Anecdotal assumption here; this is why most of us fail. Little consistent gains are the way to go!

Sleep Trajectory for January 2 Starters

Follow the user population day by day, and the arc is unmistakable. They launch well above their personalised weekday/weekend baselines. But the line trends downward almost immediately. Within a week or so, the average returns to normal; by late January, it hovers near or slightly under baseline. The shaded green "gain" area dominates early, then shrinks as red "loss" emerges. This trajectory mirrors countless resolution stories: high motivation out of the gate, gradual erosion as life intervenes.

Duration of January 2 Sleep Increases

Nothing drives home the transience quite like duration statistics. Among users who met the threshold (+5% over day-adjusted baseline), the median streak was 1 day. Fully 80.6% managed only 1–2 days before dropping back. Extended success was rare: fewer than 3% kept it going 5+ days, and just six people (0.4%) reached the January 10. 

Some lasted more, of course, but the numbers are so small they ruined the graph! So they’re omitted here. The bars plunge sharply after day 2–3, visualising how quickly the initial resolution faded for the vast majority.

Magnitude vs. Duration of January 2

When we map how much extra sleep people gained against how long they sustained it, clusters emerge. The densest group sits bottom-left: modest boosts (20–40 minutes) lasting 1–2 days. Bigger leaps scatter upward but rarely extend rightward—suggesting ambitious starts often burned bright but brief. A few steady souls occupy bottom-right: small, sustainable gains over more days. The near-flat trend line (weak correlation) underscores that there is no universal formula; success depended more on personal factors than on initial scale.

Weekend vs. Weekday Differences Over Time

We thought we might see the most significant gains on weekends, as people do a bit less socialising on a January weekend and a bit more sleeping, and we were right. Weekends generally proved reliable havens throughout Q1, adding about 14 minutes on average versus weekdays. January weekends shone brightest: Saturdays averaged a quarterly high of 7.62 hours, and Fridays weren't far behind.

A quick note on compliance

Digging into compliance (days the device was worn), we see a counterintuitive twist. Early January (Jan 2–10) showed lower average compliance (56.1%) than the rest of Q1 (63.5%), a statistically significant drop. Yet the median was actually higher (77.8% vs. 70.0%), meaning many users wore their devices every single day in that first stretch, while a minority dragged the average down. Individual-level analysis reveals a near-perfect split: 49.5% increased compliance in early January compared to their baseline, 48.7% decreased, and 42.7% hit unusually high levels (above their own 75th percentile). 

The lower average likely reflects disrupted holiday routines, forgotten charging, or starting use later in the month, but the sizable group who ramped up usage provides clear evidence that a meaningful portion treated January as a fresh start for consistent tracking. Another New Year's Resolution finding, and one we hadn’t planned on finding before the analysis!

Reflections on Resolution Reality

Synthesising everything, the New Year's Resolution sleep push is undeniably real in this dataset. Population averages ticked up in January, and we can see individual efforts in the data. Weekends become even more focused on recovery. For perhaps 60% of motivated users, early January showed behavioural differences. Compliance patterns show both enthusiasm and struggle, with a large cohort stepping up their device use right when the calendar changed.

Yet the effect's fragility stands out just as clearly. Gains were minutes, not hours. Latency worsened alongside increased sleeping. We found this interesting; it suggests that people are trying to sleep more than they can in this period. Possibly a focus on early nights? Most personal streaks died within days. By February, the slate was essentially clean: shorter nights, better onset, New Year’s resolutions over.

Why does this happen? The data offers clues without judgment. We think forced early bedtimes without circadian alignment prolong latency. Ambitious leaps (especially in sleep time) prove unsustainable. Life—work, stress, and social commitments—reassert themselves quickly. The subset who occasionally lasted longer often chose moderation over magnitude - a pattern we’ve seen before in our data Research.

There's no shame in this pattern; it's deeply human. Sleep isn't isolated; it's intertwined with routines, light exposure, evening habits, and emotional state. Dramatic January resets ignore that complexity.

The encouraging flip side: minor, consistent adjustments showed occasional staying power. Weekend premiums persisted all quarter. Some users found sustainable grooves without heroic effort.

If you're planning for 2026, let this data guide you. Start small. Protect weekends for recovery. Align changes with your natural rhythm rather than calendar pressure. Real improvement compounds over months, not days. In the next blog, we’ll turn our New Year’s Resolution focus to exercise regimes.

Sleep well and Happy New Year!